Topics

[Fw:] Cycle 25 Optimism


Jerry N9AVY
 



---cycle 25 Optimism

One can only hope…

 



========================================

[PVRC] Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude

From: K5RT - Paul

Date: Fri, 03 Jul 2020 16:06:23 CDT

Well, maybe there is hope for cycle 25?

 

Five scientists associated with National Center for Atmospheric Research, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Maryland Department of Astronomy,  NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, School of Engineering and Innovation are making a bold prediction about Solar Cycle 25.

 

In the document titled  “Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude”, they write:

 

“Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.”

If you want to read how they came about making this prediction,  you can check out the details at:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf

 

If they are correct in their prediction, those who have never experienced F2 skip on 50 MHz will be in for a real treat.

 

73,

Rich K1HTV

 


Scotty W7PSK
 

I hope so, I started in 77 and Cycle 21 was starting. It peaked at 231 and I could work most any band I wanted with a wet noodle it seemed.  I Operated KG4RS and 10-20 were just

jumping constantly and I worked in the Month I was there for a special Mission about 175 countries.  WAS on all bands I could get on was a piece of Cake.  I order all QSLs and

did it myself.  Never again :).  Wife wasnt happy and MY PO BOX for Rota Spain definitly wasnt happy.  1980 saw me in VQ9RS and this time I had Lyle Meek N6BLN as my MGR. 

NCDXC sponsored me and paid for all the cards and did all the QSLs.  Again the Bands were just Hopping and I could work the world with ease,  I could stay up all night on 20 (when I wasnt flying missions the next Day).  81 I was WD6DJB/EA7 when they finally signed a reciprocal agreement so we could get Callsigns. 

I would hope if we hit near 250 as they predicted, I would absolutely love it.  But Im not holding my breath.


On 7/7/2020 13:26, Jerry N9AVY wrote:


---cycle 25 Optimism

One can only hope…

 



========================================

[PVRC] Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude

From: K5RT - Paul

Date: Fri, 03 Jul 2020 16:06:23 CDT

Well, maybe there is hope for cycle 25?

 

Five scientists associated with National Center for Atmospheric Research, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Maryland Department of Astronomy,  NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, School of Engineering and Innovation are making a bold prediction about Solar Cycle 25.

 

In the document titled  “Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude”, they write:

 

“Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.”

If you want to read how they came about making this prediction,  you can check out the details at:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf

 

If they are correct in their prediction, those who have never experienced F2 skip on 50 MHz will be in for a real treat.

 

73,

Rich K1HTV

 


--
Scotty W7PSK
Everett, Washington
070 #138


Jim K5SP
 

I was on Diego Garcia 1976-77.  That cycle was outstanding. Operated as WB6EWH/VQ9, at that time, the BritRep on the island could not issue call signs, they had to come from Whitehall in England.  At night,  20 & 15 meters were wide open to US until around one in the morning, it was like talking on a landline phone.  Had a QSL manager, cannot remember his call, but he was inundated with cards.  Had shoe-boxes full when I got back. 

Never applied for DXCC, and unfortunately, got divorced, and only got one box with cards in my stuff.  Got a meritorious service award from N&MC Mars for turning that station around, and providing phone patches every day for the seabees/Commsta personnel.  Other hams on the island were K6JMZ (Warrant Officer Jim Price, who is still a good friend today), and Tom Dixon K5AX (now in Houston).

For over 30 years, held the CQWW high score for 15meters, don't know if it still holds or not. 

Can't wait for another cycle like that!

Jim K5SP


On 7/7/2020 11:42 PM, Scotty W7PSK wrote:

I hope so, I started in 77 and Cycle 21 was starting. It peaked at 231 and I could work most any band I wanted with a wet noodle it seemed.  I Operated KG4RS and 10-20 were just

jumping constantly and I worked in the Month I was there for a special Mission about 175 countries.  WAS on all bands I could get on was a piece of Cake.  I order all QSLs and

did it myself.  Never again :).  Wife wasnt happy and MY PO BOX for Rota Spain definitly wasnt happy.  1980 saw me in VQ9RS and this time I had Lyle Meek N6BLN as my MGR. 

NCDXC sponsored me and paid for all the cards and did all the QSLs.  Again the Bands were just Hopping and I could work the world with ease,  I could stay up all night on 20 (when I wasnt flying missions the next Day).  81 I was WD6DJB/EA7 when they finally signed a reciprocal agreement so we could get Callsigns. 

I would hope if we hit near 250 as they predicted, I would absolutely love it.  But Im not holding my breath.


On 7/7/2020 13:26, Jerry N9AVY wrote:


---cycle 25 Optimism

One can only hope…

 



========================================

[PVRC] Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude

From: K5RT - Paul

Date: Fri, 03 Jul 2020 16:06:23 CDT

Well, maybe there is hope for cycle 25?

 

Five scientists associated with National Center for Atmospheric Research, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Maryland Department of Astronomy,  NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, School of Engineering and Innovation are making a bold prediction about Solar Cycle 25.

 

In the document titled  “Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude”, they write:

 

“Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.”

If you want to read how they came about making this prediction,  you can check out the details at:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf

 

If they are correct in their prediction, those who have never experienced F2 skip on 50 MHz will be in for a real treat.

 

73,

Rich K1HTV

 


--
Scotty W7PSK
Everett, Washington
070 #138

--
Jim,  K5SP #483
Executive Director/Member Services Director


 

I started in 76 and was active for 5 or 6 yrs., family and job got in the way.  I just thought that was the way it was, convert a CB to ten and work the world on 12 watts mobile.  Imagine my surprise when I took the hobby back up in 09.  Lost some of my cards in a divorce also, my prize possession, my JY1 card.

John
KC3FL


Jerry N9AVY
 

John:

Bummer on divorce ! Same here but didn't lose any QSLs. If i thought they were in danger would have put them in bank safety deposit box. Ex moved out and filed for divorce. Was a bit lost without her, but then bank account increased over time and I survived.

Bummer on losing JY1 (King of Jordan) who died several years ago. Never worked him but did get Capt. of Palace Guard. One JY is almost as good as another... almost.

Conditions aren't as good as they were back in 70s and earlier, but there's hope for the future.

Jerry n9avy
















On Wednesday, July 8, 2020, 11:36:25 AM CDT, John - KC3FL via groups.io <kc3fl@...> wrote:


I started in 76 and was active for 5 or 6 yrs., family and job got in the way.  I just thought that was the way it was, convert a CB to ten and work the world on 12 watts mobile.  Imagine my surprise when I took the hobby back up in 09.  Lost some of my cards in a divorce also, my prize possession, my JY1 card.

John
KC3FL


K7DWI Art
 

Good morning,
So far in my my 40 plus years trying to figure out how propagation works, only one person has really caught my attention on predicting what the next Solar Cycle will do.
I had the honor and pleasure to be the opening presentation at the 2011 Central States VHF Society in Irving Texas. My presentation (Spring/Summer Seasonal Es) was followed by a presentation from Jim Kennedy. K6MIO. Jim is a Astrophysicist 
He forewarned us that Cycle 24 was going to be poor. The reason was that the reversal of the Solar Poles (Fields) were badly out of sync. He was right on.
The greater the magnitude of the separation will result in a stronger and more active Cycle. The peak occurs when these fields cross, but strength depends on a long journey (magnitude between the 2 at minimum).
If you look at the current charts from the Wilcox Solar Observatory, http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html
the Polar Fields have now reversed (solar minimum reached). The magnitude between the Fields was greater than Cycle 24, but less than Cycle 23.
Therefore they have predicted that Cycle 25 will lie in between the two.
I would say maybe a few 6 Meter F2 openings, but not enough to write home about.
There was to my knowledge, only one Trans-Continental F2 opening on 6 Meters during Cycle 24. Sadly the Ham that worked it became a Silent Key 3 months later.

I do not expect a wonderful Solar Cycle. 10 Meters will still be a Hoot. I had some wonderful Fall and Winter 10M PSK31 PropNET and WSPR captures in 2014-2015.
I think most of what is published is Wishful Thinking or Fake News :)
73 Art K7DWI 070# 2518

 


Jerry N9AVY
 

If wishes were horses beggars would ride. Let's be hopeful that propagation will get better because for some of us it may be our last sunspot cycle unless we can build a time machine and go back to the glory days. Hi ! Hi !

Jerry n9avy

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020, 11:53:15 AM CDT, K7DWI Art <k7dwicn82@...> wrote:


Good morning,
So far in my my 40 plus years trying to figure out how propagation works, only one person has really caught my attention on predicting what the next Solar Cycle will do.
I had the honor and pleasure to be the opening presentation at the 2011 Central States VHF Society in Irving Texas. My presentation (Spring/Summer Seasonal Es) was followed by a presentation from Jim Kennedy. K6MIO. Jim is a Astrophysicist 
He forewarned us that Cycle 24 was going to be poor. The reason was that the reversal of the Solar Poles (Fields) were badly out of sync. He was right on.
The greater the magnitude of the separation will result in a stronger and more active Cycle. The peak occurs when these fields cross, but strength depends on a long journey (magnitude between the 2 at minimum).
If you look at the current charts from the Wilcox Solar Observatory, http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html
the Polar Fields have now reversed (solar minimum reached). The magnitude between the Fields was greater than Cycle 24, but less than Cycle 23.
Therefore they have predicted that Cycle 25 will lie in between the two.
I would say maybe a few 6 Meter F2 openings, but not enough to write home about.
There was to my knowledge, only one Trans-Continental F2 opening on 6 Meters during Cycle 24. Sadly the Ham that worked it became a Silent Key 3 months later.

I do not expect a wonderful Solar Cycle. 10 Meters will still be a Hoot. I had some wonderful Fall and Winter 10M PSK31 PropNET and WSPR captures in 2014-2015.
I think most of what is published is Wishful Thinking or Fake News :)
73 Art K7DWI 070# 2518

 


Ray Clements
 

We also need a good sunspot cycle for the benefit of new hams who will forever think that hitting 2 meter repeaters using a shack on the belt is the only game in town.




------ Original Message ------
Received: 12:02 PM CDT, 07/08/2020
From: "Jerry N9AVY" <n9avy@...>
To: main@070Club.groups.io
Subject: Re: [070Club] [Fw:] Cycle 25 Optimism


If wishes were horses beggars would ride. Let's be hopeful that propagation will get better because for some of us it may be our last sunspot cycle unless we can build a time machine and go back to the glory days. Hi ! Hi !

Jerry n9avy
On Wednesday, July 8, 2020, 11:53:15 AM CDT, K7DWI Art <k7dwicn82@...> wrote:


Good morning,
So far in my my 40 plus years trying to figure out how propagation works, only one person has really caught my attention on predicting what the next Solar Cycle will do.
I had the honor and pleasure to be the opening presentation at the 2011 Central States VHF Society in Irving Texas. My presentation (Spring/Summer Seasonal Es) was followed by a presentation from Jim Kennedy. K6MIO. Jim is a Astrophysicist 
He forewarned us that Cycle 24 was going to be poor. The reason was that the reversal of the Solar Poles (Fields) were badly out of sync. He was right on.
The greater the magnitude of the separation will result in a stronger and more active Cycle. The peak occurs when these fields cross, but strength depends on a long journey (magnitude between the 2 at minimum).
If you look at the current charts from the Wilcox Solar Observatory, http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html
the Polar Fields have now reversed (solar minimum reached). The magnitude between the Fields was greater than Cycle 24, but less than Cycle 23.
Therefore they have predicted that Cycle 25 will lie in between the two.
I would say maybe a few 6 Meter F2 openings, but not enough to write home about.
There was to my knowledge, only one Trans-Continental F2 opening on 6 Meters during Cycle 24. Sadly the Ham that worked it became a Silent Key 3 months later.

I do not expect a wonderful Solar Cycle. 10 Meters will still be a Hoot. I had some wonderful Fall and Winter 10M PSK31 PropNET and WSPR captures in 2014-2015.
I think most of what is published is Wishful Thinking or Fake News :)
73 Art K7DWI 070# 2518

 




 

Jerry,

Stupid me, I had it in a frame, she got the dog too.  Had a cheap lawyer.  hi hi

I had just finished running phone patches for McMurdo AFB, Antartic, abt  3 AM local time when he called me, thought it was a pirate station because of no suffix  which he later said he was number one so he didn't need one.  Told him I was a Radio Shack mngr at the time and he told me he had one of everything they sold which I didn't believe until he told me what he did for a living.  Made the mistake of calling him Your Majesty and got the lecture that there are no titles or royalties in amateur radio, just first names and mine's Hussein.  It was a friendly chewing out.


Jerry N9AVY
 

Wow !

Jerry

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020, 12:23:39 PM CDT, John - KC3FL via groups.io <kc3fl@...> wrote:


Jerry,

Stupid me, I had it in a frame, she got the dog too.  Had a cheap lawyer.  hi hi

I had just finished running phone patches for McMurdo AFB, Antartic, abt  3 AM local time when he called me, thought it was a pirate station because of no suffix  which he later said he was number one so he didn't need one.  Told him I was a Radio Shack mngr at the time and he told me he had one of everything they sold which I didn't believe until he told me what he did for a living.  Made the mistake of calling him Your Majesty and got the lecture that there are no titles or royalties in amateur radio, just first names and mine's Hussein.  It was a friendly chewing out.


 

Believe me!...all JY stations are not the same!
I actually met JY1 at a reception for him in New Orleans at their consulate. His cousin, JY3ZH, Zedan Hussein had a son that was a student at LSU, in petroleum engineering. I'd run phone patches for them when our path's crossed a few times a week. Zedan ran the "African Knight's Net" on 20 meters and would bring up different North African stations.
JY3ZH asked me if I had a tuxedo, then I got an invitation to a dinner party at their Consulate.
JY1 was very nice, cordial, and extremely friendly when I was introduced to him as a ham. I received a standing invitation to visit him and his shack in Amman, if I happened to be passing through. 
HIS QSL CARDS ARE STILL AVAILABLE VIA:
QSL via N2OO 
PO Box 345, Tuckerton, NJ 08087 USA
Bob asks that you email him 1st @  n2oo@... 
JY1 was forced into exile a few years later and died from cancer a few months after that. That was like 35 + years ago. 
Great memories...20m was open 24/7 to someplace. 10m & 15m open 18 hours a day and  80m & 40m open worldwide 2X everyday at greyline.
Just give me one more Solar Cycle like that! 
Milt.
N6MG
070-650
LONP #76


Jerry N9AVY
 

Milt:

Great memories of past cycles ! Wish they were still with us.

Worked JY5ZM, Zuheir, back in 1980 on q20m plus about 8 others over the years. Was in pile up for Hussein , JY1, but never got through.

Thanks,

Jerry n9avy

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020, 06:08:31 PM CDT, Milton Garb via groups.io <n6mg@...> wrote:


Believe me!...all JY stations are not the same!
I actually met JY1 at a reception for him in New Orleans at their consulate. His cousin, JY3ZH, Zedan Hussein had a son that was a student at LSU, in petroleum engineering. I'd run phone patches for them when our path's crossed a few times a week. Zedan ran the "African Knight's Net" on 20 meters and would bring up different North African stations.
JY3ZH asked me if I had a tuxedo, then I got an invitation to a dinner party at their Consulate.
JY1 was very nice, cordial, and extremely friendly when I was introduced to him as a ham. I received a standing invitation to visit him and his shack in Amman, if I happened to be passing through. 
HIS QSL CARDS ARE STILL AVAILABLE VIA:
QSL via N2OO 
PO Box 345, Tuckerton, NJ 08087 USA
Bob asks that you email him 1st @  n2oo@... 
JY1 was forced into exile a few years later and died from cancer a few months after that. That was like 35 + years ago. 
Great memories...20m was open 24/7 to someplace. 10m & 15m open 18 hours a day and  80m & 40m open worldwide 2X everyday at greyline.
Just give me one more Solar Cycle like that! 
Milt.
N6MG
070-650
LONP #76


Ken Campbell <n6pcd1@...>
 

Milt,

Would love to experience that type of propagation before I cash in my chips! 👍🏻🤨
--
All the best,
Ken N6PCD
070 #801
LONP #187