Re: [Fw:] Cycle 25 Optimism


Jerry N9AVY
 

If wishes were horses beggars would ride. Let's be hopeful that propagation will get better because for some of us it may be our last sunspot cycle unless we can build a time machine and go back to the glory days. Hi ! Hi !

Jerry n9avy

On Wednesday, July 8, 2020, 11:53:15 AM CDT, K7DWI Art <k7dwicn82@...> wrote:


Good morning,
So far in my my 40 plus years trying to figure out how propagation works, only one person has really caught my attention on predicting what the next Solar Cycle will do.
I had the honor and pleasure to be the opening presentation at the 2011 Central States VHF Society in Irving Texas. My presentation (Spring/Summer Seasonal Es) was followed by a presentation from Jim Kennedy. K6MIO. Jim is a Astrophysicist 
He forewarned us that Cycle 24 was going to be poor. The reason was that the reversal of the Solar Poles (Fields) were badly out of sync. He was right on.
The greater the magnitude of the separation will result in a stronger and more active Cycle. The peak occurs when these fields cross, but strength depends on a long journey (magnitude between the 2 at minimum).
If you look at the current charts from the Wilcox Solar Observatory, http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html
the Polar Fields have now reversed (solar minimum reached). The magnitude between the Fields was greater than Cycle 24, but less than Cycle 23.
Therefore they have predicted that Cycle 25 will lie in between the two.
I would say maybe a few 6 Meter F2 openings, but not enough to write home about.
There was to my knowledge, only one Trans-Continental F2 opening on 6 Meters during Cycle 24. Sadly the Ham that worked it became a Silent Key 3 months later.

I do not expect a wonderful Solar Cycle. 10 Meters will still be a Hoot. I had some wonderful Fall and Winter 10M PSK31 PropNET and WSPR captures in 2014-2015.
I think most of what is published is Wishful Thinking or Fake News :)
73 Art K7DWI 070# 2518

 

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